The postseason starts today and you can argue for several teams to win the World Series when it finally wraps up in early November (yes, November). But the cold, hard fact is this: The Yankees are the favorite and anyone's road to a championship is going to have to go through the Bronx. Joe Girardi's team won 103 games this year (no one else won more than 95). And keep in mind, that came after a 13-15 start. The Yankees hit a franchise-record 244 home runs, Mark Teixeira tightened up the defense, and Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera give them the best back end of the bullpen of any contenders. As for starting pitching, you can certainly make the argument that CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett have yet to win in the October spotlight (No. 3 man Andy Pettitte certainly has). Sabathia, in particular, has to get the Yankees off to a quick start tonight against the sure-to-be-worn-down Twins. He flamed out, remember, for the Brewers in the division series last year in Philadelphia and for the Indians in the 2007 ALCS against the Red Sox.
But since June 4, the Yankees have the best record in Baseball at 72-37. Just behind them at 72-38 are the amazing Rockies. And before everyone crabs how the Yankees are buying another championship, keep in mind they haven't won the World Series since 2000 and haven't even been in it since 2003.
The only team that's won more than one Series in this decade is the Red Sox, which should show you how topsy-turvy things have gotten. They won two in a four-year stretch after going 0 for the previous 86.
The National League, meanwhile, has been represented by 10 different teams in the last 11 years, a list that reads like this: Padres, Braves, Mets, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Cardinals, Astros, Cardinals (the only repeat), Rockies and Phillies. The Phillies are trying to be the NL's first repeat Series winner since the 1975-76 Reds.
Based on the string of NL winners the last decade, it would seem to be the Dodgers' turn. They haven't been in the Fall Classic since Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershiser made 1988 one of those years forever notched in October lore. But, from this view, their dearth of starting pitching is going to be their downfall.
Some great potential World Series story lines: Yankees -Dodgers, with Joe Torre's return to the Bronx; Dodgers-Red Sox, with Manny Ramirez's return to Fenway; Dodgers-Angels Freeway Series; how about Yankees -Phillies or Yankees -Cardinals? Maybe a Red Sox-Rockies' '07 rematch?
Our annual reminder about wild-card teams: They often make the Series. Last year's Tampa Bay-Philadelphia Fall Classic was the first one since 2001 that did not include at least one wild card. So keep an eye on the Red Sox and, especially, the Rockies.
Here's a look at the division series matchups:
Yankees vs. Twins
Inside the Yankees : You can't go wrong with this lineup. Seven players with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs. Alex Rodriguez put up another 30-100 year even though he missed 38 games. Teixeira is the AL MVP, non-Joe Mauer division, and Derek Jeter is simply aging like a fine wine. A-Rod is just 7 for 44 in his last three postseason series and the tabloids will be on him quickly if he slumps out of the gate. . . . The pitching staff will have plenty of rest with all the off days, allowing a three-man rotation of Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte. But Jorge Posada is agitated that he won't be catching Burnett, with whom he's never connected this year. . . . The relief corps has been solid, and will get the addition of Joba Chamberlain. . . . Closer Rivera is once again unbeatable (44 of 46 in saves). The off days really help him, too; he can be called upon for some saves of 4-6 outs now that he has a break between games.
Inside the Twins: They can celebrate their amazing run in the Central and Tuesday's win all they want, but I'll sober them up quickly. The Twinkies were 0-7 against the Yankees this year and they're 2-9 in their last three appearances in this round, losing to the Yankees in 2003 and 2004. . . . Don't forget that slugger Justin Morneau (back) is out for the season, but Michael Cuddyer (.276-32-94) has been a revelation this year. And they have the MVP in Mauer. No explanation needed. . . . Hard to believe in a team that lists Carl Pavano as one of its top three starters. Long game Tuesday shredded bullpen and closer Joe Nathan (47 of 52) may not have any games to save.
Outlook: It doesn't matter who the opponent was. The schedule is a huge factor in the Yankees' favor with a team winning a long division battle Tuesday and having to start a playoff series tonight. There's too much of a talent gap no matter who came out of the Central. Yankees in three.
Red Sox vs. Angels
Inside the Sox: They've had the Angels' number in the division series, winning nine of 10 games in 2004, 2007 and 2008. That's a big advantage on paper at least. . . . But the pitching is uncertain. Josh Beckett (back) and Jon Lester (thigh) are physical question marks. Youngster Clay Buchholz has been up and down. Middle relief can be iffy at times but closer Jonathan Papelbon went 38 for 41 in save chances. . . . Still plenty of offense with table-setter Jacoby Ellsbury (.301, franchise-record 70 SBs), Dustin Pedroia, newcomer Victor Martinez, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis. And David Ortiz finished with 28 homers and 99 RBIs when he basically did nothing until June.
Inside the Angels: Fabulous lineup includes 100-RBI men Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu, all-star Torii Hunter and always-dangerous DH Vladimir Guerrero, who had a down year. 3B Chone Figgins is probably the most underrated player in the AL (.298, 114 runs, 101 walks, 42 steals). Figgins will lead an attack that should run wild against weak-armed Jason Varitek. . . . Morales hit just .200 with no homers and 12 strikeouts against the Red Sox. . . . John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders form a great rotation. Lackey is a former World Series hero and Saunders is 7-0 in his last eight starts. Closer Brian Fuentes struggled early but led MLB with 48 saves in first year after Francisco Rodriguez left.
Outlook: This is the Angels' time to end Boston jinx. Too much offense, too much pitching. Sorry, Fox. No Yankees -Red Sox ALCS. Angels in four.
Rockies vs. Phillies
Inside the Rockies: It's turn back the clock to 2007 as Colorado enters the postseason on an amazing roll. The Rox went 74-42 after Jim Tracy took over from Clint Hurdle as manager on May 29 and nearly wiped out a 15-game deficit in the NL West. . . . Troy Tulowitzki (.297-32-92) and Todd Helton (.325-15-86) both had big bounceback years after disappointing '08. OF Dexter Fowler has been a catalyst and OF Brad Hawpe a big power threat. . . . Colorado is only team in the majors with five starters who won at least 10 games. Jorge De La Rosa was 16-3 after an 0-6 start but tweaked a groin last week and is going to miss this series. Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12) starts Game One. Huston Street went 35 of 37 in saves and Rafael Betancourt had a 1.78 ERA since coming from Cleveland.
Inside the Phillies: All the '08 Series heros are back, such as Ryan Howard (.279-45-141), Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth has a bigger role. Newcomer Raul Ibanez had 34 homers and 93 RBIs. . . . The pitching has a different look with Cliff Lee, Pedro Martinez and rookie J.A. Happ joining Series MVP Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton. . . . The big story, however, has been the bullpen where Brad Lidge went 0-8, 7.21 and blew 11 of 42 save chances after going 48 for 48 last year. Ryan Madson had been only marginally better. Phils may have to push starters.
Outlook: Always hard to pick against a defending champion, especially one with a lineup like the Phillies. But Rockies are on an incredible run and a bullpen blowup can be fatal in a short series like this. Rockies in four.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Inside the Cardinals: Albert Pujols. Albert Pujols. Albert Pujols. He came close to a Triple Crown this year (.327-47-135) even though he went the last 79 at-bats of the season without going deep. You must walk him when you have the chance. But if you do, Matt Holliday (.353-13-55 since trade from Oakland) can get you. So can Ryan Ludwick. . . . Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24), Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63) and Joel Pineiro (15-12) are a terrific top three, while the middle relief is solid and closer Ryan Franklin (1.92 ERA, 38 saves) was a revelation. Remember, Wainwright was the closer when Cards won it all three years ago.
Inside the Dodgers: All the talk centers around Manny Ramirez but Andre Ethier (.272-31-106) and Matt Kemp (.297-26-101) had better years in the wake of MannyBeingManny's PED suspension. DP combo Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson form a strong infield with Casey Blake and James Loney. . . . The rotation has simply not produced a lot of innings and Chad Billingsley led the way with 12 wins but has struggled in the second half. So there's a lot of pressure on a great bullpen that is led by back-end studs Jonathan Broxton (36 saves) and George Sherrill (0.65 ERA since coming from Baltimore).
Outlook: The Dodgers don't have nearly enough starting pitching to match up. Cardinals in four.
e-mail: mharrington@buffnews.com
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