Playoff Baseball is here. The weather has that chill we feel each October, meaning it's time to start Major League Baseball's postseason party. Teams play 162 games to determine the right to go to the tournament, which covers three rounds and potentially 19 games between the participants. This year, all the teams have qualified except the winner of the AL Central, where Detroit's bats have gone into early winter hibernation. This could allow the Minnesota Twins a chance to extend their home love affair with the Metrodome.
If a playoff is needed to decide the division race, the Twins current domed ballpark, which will be replaced next season with open-aired Target Field, will be the site of the one-game playoff on Tuesday.
There are many variables to consider when determining a team's chance in the playoffs. Some include strength of the starting staff, a team's ability to score runs without the long ball, home-field advantage in a deciding game, a team's bullpen (always a factor), and how well a team is playing as the regular season winds down.
Let's rank the teams heading into the playoffs, based on those variables, starting in the American League.
1. New York Yankees: Heading down the stretch, the Yankees continued to win at home (57-24). The Yankees will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Yankees score runs easily, hitting home runs daily in their new park.
Starters CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett are veterans, although Burnett has never pitched in a playoff game. Sabathia, a 19-game winner, is living up to his free agent contract. The problems begin for the Yanks when Andy Pettitte (shoulder fatigue in September) and Joba Chamberlain take the mound. Chamberlain has been awful since the All-Star break and one wonders if the righty is healthy.
Closer Mariano Rivera and set-up man Philip Hughes lead a very good 'pen.
The Yanks are the team to beat in the AL because of their two starting pitchers and the franchise's long history of not being awed by October Baseball.
2. Boston Red Sox: Every team in the playoffs has some potential issue when assessing strengths and weaknesses. The Red Sox are not playing their best Baseball right now. This team is much better at home (54-25) than on the road (39-42).
Josh Beckett is one of the top postseason pitchers in history. Beckett has struggled in September before finally needing three cortisone injections in his sore upper back this week. Yesterday, Beckett did not appear to be sharp in a start against the lowly Cleveland Indians at Fenway Park.
Starter Jon Lester has been terrific for the past three months. Daisuke Matsuzka looks playoff-ready. Clay Buchholz will be the club's fourth starter.
Boston has not hit as well against left-handed pitching. The Angels will throw lefties Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders in Games 3 and 4 in Boston.
Boston's 'pen is one of the best in the playoffs. The relief staff overall throws hard and is well-balanced between left-handed and right-handed pitchers.
Offensively, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay are legitimate hitters.
If Boston gets by the Angels and meets the Yankees in the ALCS, New York better be careful, despite dominating the Red Sox since the All-Star break.
The only worry is the health of Beckett, a pitcher who changes the balance of power in any playoff series.
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim : The Angels have played great Baseball (67-36) since reaching the .500 mark of 29-29 earlier in the season.
The major question facing the Halos is will they be able to break the hold Boston has held on them during their past three meetings in the ALDS?If the Angels play in the postseason as they have during the regular season, things will be fine. If the big hitters Kendry Morales (he hits sixth in the order for some reason), Torii Hunter, Juan Rivera, Vladimir Guerrero and Bobby Abreu go into slumps, then the Angels are sunk.
The Angels run the bases better than anyone in the majors. If they have chances to steal on Boston catchers Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez, they will as often as possible.
The Angels' worry is their 'pen. Closer Brian Fuentes gets the job done, but it's never easy for the lefty.
Starter Ervin Santana will help rookie set-up man Kevin Jepsen in the 'pen. Boston's 'pen is ideal while the Angels' relief corps leaves much to be desired.
Starters John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Kazmir and Saunders are steady, but not spectacular pitchers.
The Angel- Red Sox series will be something to see.
4. Detroit or Minnesota: Whichever wins the AL Central.
The Tigers' lack of offense has been a problem for manager Jim Leyland all season. Magglio Ordonez has begun to hit, but without power. Miguel Cabrera is a quiet star.
The Tigers have three starters they rely upon. Edwin Jackson has not been the same pitcher as earlier in the season. Rick Porcello, a 20-year-old righty, has been very good in September. Justin Verlander leads the AL in strikeouts.
If Detroit gets into the playoffs, the Yankees will have to take them seriously because of Detroit's potentially dominating starting pitchers.
Minnesota has taken advantage of the Tigers' fall, putting them in a position to win the division or possibly force a playoff.
The Twins have Michael Cuddyer whacking the ball in September. Joe Mauer, everyone's MVP, is a threat to get a hit every time he steps into the box. Delmon Young has come alive at the right time.
Minnesota's pitching staff is ordinary, at best.
Minnesota has karma and the motion of the Metrodome going for them. However, if the Twins do unseat the Tigers for the division crown, their joy will be short-lived in the first round versus the Yankees.
NL:
1. St. Louis Cardinals: Even though the club is not playing good Baseball right now, St. Louis has much going for it heading into the playoffs.
The Cards' slide has cost them home-field advantage against all their NL opponents except the wild-card entry.
St. Louis has two key ingredients: Two absolutely dominating starting pitchers in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Joel Pineiro has had his best season since his days in Seattle. Either Kyle Lohse or John Smoltz will be the fourth starter.
The other key ingredient is first baseman Albert Pujols, who is the best hitter in the game. The likely NL MVP is capable of changing the game any time he makes contact with the Baseball.
The Cards for some reason don't hit left-handed pitching as well, even with right-handers Ryan Ludwick, Matt Holliday and Mark De Rosa leading the way.
The Cards have a deep 'pen. even though closer Ryan Franklin has some physical issues. Manager Tony La Russa will use the whole relief staff, if necessary, in a close game.
Cards have dominated the Dodgers (5-2) in '09, but have trouble beating the Rockies (1-5).
If Carpenter and Wainwright are both on top of their game, then this club is the favorite to win the NL pennant. If either of the two falters, then the race to the World Series is wide open.
2. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phils are the defending World Champions, and for that reason (playoff experience) I rank them ahead of the Rockies.
The Phillies' starting pitching may be spectacular or it may be ordinary, it depends on which Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels show up once the games begin. Both have been shaky down the stretch.
JA Happ, Pedro Martinezand Joe Blanton give the Phils depth, but the lefties (Lee and Hamels) must lead the way.
The Phils' lineup has gone through slumps at various times this season. The club is loaded with left-handed power (Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley), making them vulnerable to the Dodgers' lefty starters.
Who will close for the Phillies? Brad Lidge -- perfect in 2008 -- has been the opposite this year. Set-up man Ryan Madson may be needed this month to close. If that's the case, the Phils will be in trouble.
The Phils win at home (44-36), but are better on the road (48-33), a good omen during the playoffs, where many games are played before noisy, hostile crowds.
The Phils are a solid, veteran ballclub and definitely a dangerous team. But the key starting pitchers and the big hitters had better live up to their hype.
3. Colorado Rockies: Clearly the most unknown team of the NL entrants.
The Rockies have been playing great Baseball since May. Manager Jim Tracy has been masterful during that time.
Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is doing a good imitation of Albert Pujols every time he steps into the batter's box. Todd Helton has had a tremendous comeback season.
The strength of the club is in its 25-man roster. Everyone on the team contributes to the cause.
The Rockies got a huge boost when starter Aaron Cook returned this week. Lefty Jorge De LaRosa has been one of the best pitchers in Baseball since June. Ubaldo Jimenez has a power arm.
In the 'pen, Huston Street is the closer. Set-up men Franklin Morales and Rafael Betancourt have been very steady for the manager.
The Rockies must be taken very seriously by whomever they meet in the NLDS. This team could make it to the World Series because of its depth (Carlos Gonzalez, Brad Hawpe, Yorvit Torrealba, etc) and excellent starting staff -- with Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis providing help, if needed.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are playing their worst Baseball of the season right now, mainly because they are not scoring runs.
Andre Ethier, who has struggled versus left-handed pitching, and Manny Ramirez, who is striking out with alarming frequency, are the two biggest bats misfiring right now.
The Dodgers will rely on starters Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, along with Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla. This starting staff is a major concern for manager Joe Torre.
The Dodgers 'pen is solid with the addition of George Sherill as its eighth-inning relief specialist.
The Dodgers need to rediscover the offense right away or their recent postseason misery will continue in the NLDS.
Every team has its issues. Relief pitching will be a key this postseason because of the lack of true "aces" on many of the staffs.
We may see more offense than we usually see in the postseason because of the lack of those so-called aces.
My guess right now is we will see the Cardinals and the Yankees in the World Series, but I wouldn't bet the mortgage that those will be the two teams squaring off when the Fall Classic begins Oct. 28.
My darkhorse picks: Colorado and Boston.
This is one wide-open playoff and that's the way this season should conclude. That's Baseball.
See you in the spring!
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